Lugano 2-0 Young Boys — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.96
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.15
Over 2.5
56%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.56
No
43%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.3
2-3 Goals
38%
1.87
4-5 Goals
28%
2.98
6+ Goals
13%
9.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.67
1/2
7%
32.5
1/X
9%
12.95
X/1
12%
4.72
X/2
7%
7.35
X/X
13%
5.33
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
22.7
2/2
15%
4.93
2/X
8%
13.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.7 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
47%
-5.8pp
30%
Draw
25%
+5.0pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
43%
+1.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
57%
-1.6pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.8pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugano EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Young Boys EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -18%
1.31/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.41
-13% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -16%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
358 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 75%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
17.4 Crosses 21.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugano
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Young Boys
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.21 xG 1.28
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
294 Passes 352
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
11.05.2024 Young Boys Young Boys 0-1 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
10.02.2024 Lugano Lugano 3-3 HT 1-1 Young Boys Young Boys İSV
29.10.2023 Lugano Lugano 1-1 HT 0-0 Young Boys Young Boys İSV
24.09.2023 Young Boys Young Boys 4-1 HT 3-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
04.06.2023 Young Boys Young Boys 3-2 HT 2-0 Lugano Lugano İSVK
25.05.2023 Lugano Lugano 2-0 HT 0-0 Young Boys Young Boys İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugano
2-0
AWAY Young Boys
1.03 xG 0.96
57% Ball Possession 43%
7 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 9
414 Passes 272
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 22
8 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lugano vs Young Boys
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugano got the better of Young Boys 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lugano as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lugano had 57% of the ball to Young Boys's 43%, shots finished 7-18, expected goals 1.03 to 0.96.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lugano and 1.83 for Young Boys.

What was the final score of Lugano vs Young Boys?

Lugano 2-0 Young Boys in the Switzerland - Super League on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugano vs Young Boys?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Lugano 41%, draw 30%, Young Boys 29%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lugano) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lugano) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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