Criciuma 1-1 Sao Paulo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 27 Oct 2024

Criciuma
1-1 HT 1-0
Sao Paulo
📅27/10/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Criciuma vs Sao Paulo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.94
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
33%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.56
Over 2.5
38%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.96
No
60%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.44
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
4.9
6+ Goals
8%
28.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.44 — our 37% vs market 34.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.85
1/2
8%
32.0
1/X
9%
14.0
X/1
13%
6.14
X/2
11%
4.75
X/X
12%
3.76
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
14%
3.38
2/X
7%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
31%
+8.1pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.5pp
33%
Away Win
40%
-6.5pp
62%
Under 2.5
60%
+1.4pp
38%
Over 2.5
40%
-1.4pp
40%
BTTS Yes
47%
-6.7pp
60%
BTTS No
53%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Criciuma v Sao Paulo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Criciuma EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 43%
+6% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -16%
1.02/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.07
-10% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -17%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
268 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 81%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
21.8 Crosses 22.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5

Criciuma vs Sao Paulo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Criciuma
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.48 xG 0.47
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
279 Passes 413
75% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 10
16 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.06.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-1 HT 2-0 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
02.11.2014 Criciuma Criciuma 1-2 HT 0-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
05.09.2014 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-0 HT 2-0 Criciuma Criciuma CSA
29.08.2014 Criciuma Criciuma 2-1 HT 2-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo CSA
03.08.2014 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-1 HT 0-0 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
01.12.2013 Criciuma Criciuma 1-0 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1

Criciuma 1-1 Sao Paulo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Criciuma
1-1
AWAY Sao Paulo
0.78 xG 0.81
30% Ball Possession 70%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 7
213 Passes 583
77% Pass Accuracy 89%
17 Box Touches 28
24 Crosses 31
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Criciuma vs Sao Paulo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Criciuma and Sao Paulo couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 33% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (62%) landed while no to both teams scoring (60%) missed.

On the day, Criciuma had 30% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 70%, shots finished 10-16, expected goals 0.78 to 0.81.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Criciuma and 1.33 for Sao Paulo.

What was the final score of Criciuma vs Sao Paulo?

Criciuma 1-1 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Criciuma vs Sao Paulo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Criciuma win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Criciuma 39%, draw 28%, Sao Paulo 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Criciuma), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Criciuma) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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