FK Orenburg 1-2 Rubin Kazan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.82
Over 2.5
44%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.75
No
56%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.24
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.63
6+ Goals
10%
14.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.24 — our 31% vs market 25.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.92
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
20%
4.65
X/2
9%
6.78
X/X
14%
4.59
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
14%
4.96
2/X
7%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
45%
-3.4pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+2.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
51%
+4.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
49%
-4.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
53%
-9.0pp
56%
BTTS No
47%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Rubin Kazan EU Bookmakers 32%
+6% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +9%
1.70/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.17
-7% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +28%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
331 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 74%
28.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
24.4 Crosses 14.6
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Orenburg
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Rubin Kazan
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.51 xG 0.92
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
339 Passes 307
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
08.04.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 3-0 HT 0-0 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan RUS
30.07.2023 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan 1-1 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
15.09.2019 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-1 HT 0-0 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan RUS
03.05.2019 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan 2-0 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
05.11.2018 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan RUS
20.09.2017 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 0-2 HT 0-1 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Orenburg
1-2
AWAY Rubin Kazan
1.36 xG 1.81
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
12 Corners 9
349 Passes 188
78% Pass Accuracy 68%
30 Box Touches 17
36 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FK Orenburg vs Rubin Kazan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rubin Kazan edged past FK Orenburg 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was FK Orenburg at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FK Orenburg had 62% of the ball to Rubin Kazan's 38%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 1.36 to 1.81.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FK Orenburg had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for FK Orenburg and 1.00 for Rubin Kazan.

What was the final score of FK Orenburg vs Rubin Kazan?

FK Orenburg 1-2 Rubin Kazan in the Russia - Premier League on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Orenburg vs Rubin Kazan?

Before kick-off our model rated a FK Orenburg win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split FK Orenburg 41%, draw 28%, Rubin Kazan 30%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (FK Orenburg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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