Bandırmaspor 3-2 Sakaryaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.9
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
25%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.9
Over 2.5
42%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.75
No
56%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.38
2-3 Goals
36%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.51
6+ Goals
8%
13.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.38 — our 34% vs market 24.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.57
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.35
X/1 EV+ ✓
23%
4.38
X/2
7%
7.85
X/X
14%
4.72
2/1
6%
24.45
2/2
11%
5.83
2/X
6%
13.9
Value flag · X/1 at 4.38 — our 23% vs market 17.8%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
48%
+1.7pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.1pp
25%
Away Win
25%
-0.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
49%
+9.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
51%
-9.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.6pp
56%
BTTS No
47%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bandırmaspor EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Sakaryaspor EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +2%
1.29/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.81
-6% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
332 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 77%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
20.2 Crosses 16.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bandırmaspor
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Sakaryaspor
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.42 xG 1.20
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
285 Passes 286
72% Pass Accuracy 72%
26 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
02.02.2024 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 1-0 HT 0-0 Bandırmaspor Bandırmaspor T1L
02.09.2023 Bandırmaspor Bandırmaspor 3-1 HT 1-1 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor T1L
17.04.2023 Bandırmaspor Bandırmaspor 3-2 HT 2-0 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor T1L
20.11.2022 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 4-2 HT 2-0 Bandırmaspor Bandırmaspor T1L
23.02.2020 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 1-0 HT 0-0 Bandırmaspor Bandırmaspor S2-K
13.10.2019 Bandırmaspor Bandırmaspor 3-0 HT 1-0 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor S2-K
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bandırmaspor
3-2
AWAY Sakaryaspor
1.19 xG 1.02
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 5
211 Passes 314
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 21
9 Crosses 28
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Bandırmaspor vs Sakaryaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bandırmaspor nicked a narrow win over Sakaryaspor 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bandırmaspor as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bandırmaspor had 42% of the ball to Sakaryaspor's 58%, shots finished 8-15, expected goals 1.19 to 1.02.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Bandırmaspor and 1.50 for Sakaryaspor.

What was the final score of Bandırmaspor vs Sakaryaspor?

Bandırmaspor 3-2 Sakaryaspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bandırmaspor vs Sakaryaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bandırmaspor win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Bandırmaspor 50%, draw 25%, Sakaryaspor 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bandırmaspor) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bandırmaspor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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