Macarthur 2-1 Adelaide United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 27 Oct 2025

Macarthur
2-1 HT 1-1
Adelaide United
📅27/10/2025 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
Australia - A-League – 2025/2026

Macarthur vs Adelaide United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.47
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
39%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.33
Over 2.5
63%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
67%
1.46
No
33%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.82
2-3 Goals
38%
1.93
4-5 Goals
29%
2.7
6+ Goals
14%
7.01
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.66
1/2
8%
23.55
1/X
7%
12.1
X/1
17%
6.26
X/2
14%
6.03
X/X
7%
5.55
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
24.45
2/2
17%
3.45
2/X
8%
12.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.45 — our 9% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.3pp
22%
Draw
25%
-3.1pp
39%
Away Win
38%
+0.9pp
37%
Under 2.5
39%
-1.9pp
63%
Over 2.5
61%
+1.9pp
67%
BTTS Yes
64%
+2.2pp
33%
BTTS No
36%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Macarthur v Adelaide United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macarthur EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Adelaide United EU Bookmakers 42%
+5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +21%
1.67/1.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.91/1.60
+13% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +65% / -23%
49% Ball Possession 51%
18 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
328 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 80%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.5
23.8 Crosses 21.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.7

Macarthur vs Adelaide United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macarthur
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Adelaide United
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.46 xG 2.03
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 8
352 Passes 342
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 35
26 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
14.03.2025 Adelaide United Adelaide United 4-5 HT 3-2 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
06.01.2025 Macarthur Macarthur 1-2 HT 0-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
12.04.2024 Adelaide United Adelaide United 1-2 HT 1-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
08.01.2024 Adelaide United Adelaide United 1-1 HT 1-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
04.12.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 4-3 HT 2-2 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
20.01.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 1-0 HT 1-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS

Macarthur 2-1 Adelaide United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macarthur
2-1
AWAY Adelaide United
1.83 xG 2.24
36% Ball Possession 64%
16 Total Shots 20
7 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 8
212 Passes 464
76% Pass Accuracy 87%
25 Box Touches 33
26 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Macarthur vs Adelaide United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Macarthur squeezed past Adelaide United 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 22% / 39%) promised a tight game; Macarthur found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (67%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Macarthur had 36% of the ball to Adelaide United's 64%, shots finished 16-20, expected goals 1.83 to 2.24 — on chances, Adelaide United could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Macarthur had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Macarthur and 2.00 for Adelaide United.

What was the final score of Macarthur vs Adelaide United?

Macarthur 2-1 Adelaide United in the Australia - A-League on 27/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macarthur vs Adelaide United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Macarthur win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Macarthur 39%, draw 22%, Adelaide United 39%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (39/22/39) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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