Adelaide United 2-3 Western Sydney Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 27 Dec 2024

Adelaide United
2-3 HT 2-1
Western Sydney Wanderers
📅27/12/2024 · 🕒11:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Adelaide United vs Western Sydney Wanderers Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.64
Draw
20%
4.08
Away
32%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
32%
2.96
Over 2.5
68%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
65%
1.41
No
35%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
14%
6.95
2-3 Goals
42%
2.17
4-5 Goals
28%
2.39
6+ Goals
16%
4.54
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.01
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.6
X/1
22%
4.43
X/2 EV+ ✗
12%
10.5
X/X
7%
7.41
2/1
5%
18.4
2/2
15%
6.41
2/X
6%
14.75
Value flag · X/2 at 10.5 — our 12% vs market 6.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
57%
-8.7pp
20%
Draw
21%
-1.1pp
31%
Away Win
22%
+9.9pp
32%
Under 2.5
30%
+2.4pp
68%
Over 2.5
70%
-2.4pp
65%
BTTS Yes
67%
-2.0pp
35%
BTTS No
33%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Adelaide United v Western Sydney Wanderers — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Adelaide United EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Western Sydney Wanderers EU Bookmakers 25%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +10%
2.37/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/2.10
-1% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / -13%
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
452 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 77%
36.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
24.6 Crosses 13.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3

Adelaide United vs Western Sydney Wanderers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Adelaide United
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Western Sydney Wanderers
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.80 xG 1.69
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 4
406 Passes 385
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
28 Box Touches 27
26 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.11.2024 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 3-4 HT 1-3 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
12.09.2024 Adelaide United Adelaide United 2-1 HT 1-0 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUK
24.02.2024 Adelaide United Adelaide United 1-2 HT 0-2 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS
15.12.2023 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 1-0 HT 1-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
29.08.2023 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 5-1 HT 3-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUK
31.03.2023 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 2-3 HT 1-1 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS

Adelaide United 2-3 Western Sydney Wanderers — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Adelaide United
2-3
AWAY Western Sydney Wanderers
0.42 xG 1.76
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 2
428 Passes 469
85% Pass Accuracy 87%
26 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Adelaide United vs Western Sydney Wanderers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Western Sydney Wanderers nicked a narrow win over Adelaide United 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Adelaide United at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (68%), both teams to score (65%) came in.

On the day, Adelaide United had 49% of the ball to Western Sydney Wanderers's 51%, shots finished 7-18, expected goals 0.42 to 1.76 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Western Sydney Wanderers's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Adelaide United and 2.33 for Western Sydney Wanderers.

What was the final score of Adelaide United vs Western Sydney Wanderers?

Adelaide United 2-3 Western Sydney Wanderers in the Australia - A-League on 27/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Adelaide United vs Western Sydney Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Adelaide United win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Adelaide United 48%, draw 20%, Western Sydney Wanderers 31%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Adelaide United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Adelaide United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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