Anderlecht 2-3 Dender EH — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 27 Dec 2024

📅27/12/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.57
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
20%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.42
2-3 Goals
35%
1.77
4-5 Goals
25%
3.29
6+ Goals
10%
12.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 30% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.04
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.2
X/1
17%
3.81
X/2
5%
10.75
X/X
11%
5.5
2/1
9%
23.4
2/2
10%
8.54
2/X
8%
16.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
59%
-5.8pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.8pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+2.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.3pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Anderlecht EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Dender EH EU Bookmakers 21%
-2% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +10%
2.19/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.81
+16% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +150%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
358 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 71%
33.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
21.5 Crosses 14.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Anderlecht
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Dender EH
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.46 xG 1.61
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
507 Passes 296
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
37 Box Touches 27
23 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
28.09.2024 Dender EH Dender EH 1-1 HT 0-1 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEL
29.06.2024 Anderlecht Anderlecht 2-1 HT 2-1 Dender EH Dender EH HAZ
23.12.2009 Anderlecht Anderlecht 3-0 HT 2-0 Dender EH Dender EH BEK
25.04.2009 Anderlecht Anderlecht 4-0 HT 3-0 Dender EH Dender EH BEL
28.11.2008 Dender EH Dender EH 0-2 HT 0-1 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEL
27.02.2008 Dender EH Dender EH 1-1 HT 0-1 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Anderlecht
2-3
AWAY Dender EH
1.87 xG 2.33
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
434 Passes 328
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 25
5 Crosses 22
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Anderlecht vs Dender EH
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dender EH squeezed past Anderlecht 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Anderlecht at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Anderlecht had 55% of the ball to Dender EH's 45%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 1.87 to 2.33.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Anderlecht had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Anderlecht and 0.50 for Dender EH.

What was the final score of Anderlecht vs Dender EH?

Anderlecht 2-3 Dender EH in the Belgium - Pro League on 27/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Anderlecht vs Dender EH?

Before kick-off our model rated a Anderlecht win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Anderlecht 53%, draw 27%, Dender EH 20%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Anderlecht) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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