Eldense 3-2 Espanyol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 28 Jan 2024

Eldense
3-2 HT 2-2
Espanyol
📅28/01/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Eldense vs Espanyol Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
30%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.52
Over 2.5
34%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.03
No
61%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.28
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
14%
5.27
6+ Goals
7%
33.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.28 — our 38% vs market 36.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.73
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.75
X/1
16%
5.0
X/2
9%
5.67
X/X
19%
3.56
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
15%
4.46
2/X
6%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
38%
+1.8pp
31%
Draw
31%
+0.2pp
29%
Away Win
32%
-2.1pp
66%
Under 2.5
62%
+4.6pp
34%
Over 2.5
38%
-4.6pp
39%
BTTS Yes
45%
-6.4pp
61%
BTTS No
55%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Eldense v Espanyol — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Eldense EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Espanyol EU Bookmakers 34%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -12%
1.33/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.18
+23% / -42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +8%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
323 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 79%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
19.9 Crosses 19.5
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.7

Eldense vs Espanyol Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Eldense
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Espanyol
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.26 xG 3.15
37% Ball Possession 63%
6 Total Shots 23
3 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 12
226 Passes 415
72% Pass Accuracy 84%
12 Box Touches 47
9 Crosses 47
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
17.09.2023 Espanyol Espanyol 3-3 HT 0-2 Eldense Eldense İS2

Eldense 3-2 Espanyol — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Eldense
3-2
AWAY Espanyol
2.21 xG 1.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 3
253 Passes 262
72% Pass Accuracy 70%
28 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Eldense vs Espanyol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Eldense squeezed past Espanyol 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 31% / 29%) promised a tight game; Eldense found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Eldense had 49% of the ball to Espanyol's 51%, shots finished 13-5, expected goals 2.21 to 1.00 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Eldense's control.

What was the final score of Eldense vs Espanyol?

Eldense 3-2 Espanyol in the Spain - 2nd Division on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Eldense vs Espanyol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Eldense win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Eldense 39%, draw 31%, Espanyol 29%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Eldense) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Eldense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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