Sporting Gijon 1-2 Racing Ferrol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.82
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
24%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.59
Over 2.5
38%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.09
No
57%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.44
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
16%
4.84
6+ Goals
8%
27.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.44 — our 35% vs market 34.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.49
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
5%
15.15
X/1
18%
3.88
X/2
9%
8.34
X/X
13%
4.0
2/1
8%
29.0
2/2
10%
7.22
2/X
12%
16.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-5.0pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.9pp
24%
Away Win
22%
+2.1pp
62%
Under 2.5
59%
+3.4pp
38%
Over 2.5
41%
-3.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.7pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Gijon EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Racing Ferrol EU Bookmakers 25%
-3% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +5%
1.24/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.35
-14% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +17%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
357 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 75%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
21.4 Crosses 18.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Gijon
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Racing Ferrol
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.02 xG 0.75
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
361 Passes 288
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 0
27.08.2023 Racing Ferrol Racing Ferrol 2-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
29.07.2015 Racing Ferrol Racing Ferrol 1-2 HT 1-1 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon HAZ
15.03.2008 Racing Ferrol Racing Ferrol 2-2 HT 2-1 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
14.10.2007 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 0-0 HT 0-0 Racing Ferrol Racing Ferrol İS2
03.06.2006 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 3-1 HT 0-1 Racing Ferrol Racing Ferrol İS2
07.01.2006 Racing Ferrol Racing Ferrol 0-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Gijon
1-2
AWAY Racing Ferrol
1.33 xG 1.63
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 3
413 Passes 275
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sporting Gijon vs Racing Ferrol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Racing Ferrol squeezed past Sporting Gijon 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Sporting Gijon at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sporting Gijon had 59% of the ball to Racing Ferrol's 41%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 1.33 to 1.63.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Gijon had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sporting Gijon and 1.00 for Racing Ferrol.

What was the final score of Sporting Gijon vs Racing Ferrol?

Sporting Gijon 1-2 Racing Ferrol in the Spain - 2nd Division on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Gijon vs Racing Ferrol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Gijon win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Sporting Gijon 46%, draw 30%, Racing Ferrol 24%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Gijon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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