Monza 1-0 Sassuolo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 28 Jan 2024

Monza
1-0 HT 1-0
Sassuolo
📅28/01/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Monza vs Sassuolo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
35%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.33
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.58
6+ Goals
10%
14.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.33 — our 31% vs market 24.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.93
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
6%
12.55
X/1
10%
4.77
X/2 EV+ ✗
18%
6.86
X/X
13%
4.45
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
10%
4.91
2/X
9%
12.95
Value flag · X/2 at 6.86 — our 18% vs market 10.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
44%
-7.0pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.0pp
35%
Away Win
28%
+7.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.6pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Monza v Sassuolo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monza EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Sassuolo EU Bookmakers 32%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -4%
1.19/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.34
-17% / +88% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -11%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
360 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 79%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
19.0 Crosses 18.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4

Monza vs Sassuolo Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monza
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Sassuolo
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.56 xG 1.52
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
442 Passes 309
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
37 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.10.2023 Sassuolo Sassuolo 0-1 HT 0-0 Monza Monza İTA
19.05.2023 Sassuolo Sassuolo 1-2 HT 1-0 Monza Monza İTA
22.01.2023 Monza Monza 1-1 HT 0-1 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA

Monza 1-0 Sassuolo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monza
1-0
AWAY Sassuolo
0.40 xG 0.76
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
450 Passes 270
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 17
13 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Monza vs Sassuolo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monza nicked a narrow win over Sassuolo 1-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 28% / 35%) promised a tight game; Monza found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Monza had 61% of the ball to Sassuolo's 39%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 0.40 to 0.76.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Monza had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Monza and 0.67 for Sassuolo.

What was the final score of Monza vs Sassuolo?

Monza 1-0 Sassuolo in the Italy - Serie A on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monza vs Sassuolo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monza win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Monza 37%, draw 28%, Sassuolo 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monza), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Monza) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTA More Italy - Serie A
28 Jan 2024
14:30 Genoa vs Lecce Analysis →
17:00 Hellas Verona vs Frosinone Analysis →
20:00 Lazio vs Napoli Analysis →
22:45 Fiorentina vs Inter Analysis →