Port Melbourne 1-0 Green Gully — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 28 Feb 2025

📅28/02/2025 · 🕒12:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 0-4
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.32
Draw
21%
3.45
Away
47%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.78
Over 2.5
53%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
6%
2/1
5%
2/2
32%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
26%
+5.8pp
20%
Draw
25%
-4.9pp
47%
Away Win
48%
-0.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.0pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Port Melbourne EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Green Gully EU Bookmakers 52%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -21%
0.73/2.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.39
-48% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -52% / -2%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
265 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.0 Crosses 18.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Port Melbourne
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Green Gully
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
240 Passes 346
73% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Crosses 36
3 Yellow Cards 2
20.07.2024 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne 3-2 HT 1-1 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
20.04.2024 Green Gully Green Gully 1-2 HT 1-1 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne AVNPL
09.06.2023 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne 1-3 HT 1-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
10.03.2023 Green Gully Green Gully 3-2 HT 2-2 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne AVNPL
03.06.2022 Green Gully Green Gully 1-3 HT 1-1 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne AVNPL
05.03.2022 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne 2-0 HT 0-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
POST-MATCH Port Melbourne vs Green Gully
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Port Melbourne edged past Green Gully 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Green Gully at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Port Melbourne had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Port Melbourne and 1.67 for Green Gully.

What was the final score of Port Melbourne vs Green Gully?

Port Melbourne 1-0 Green Gully in the Australia - National Premier League on 28/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Port Melbourne vs Green Gully?

Before kick-off our model rated an Green Gully win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Port Melbourne 32%, draw 20%, Green Gully 47%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Green Gully), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Green Gully) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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