Port Melbourne 3-2 Green Gully — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 20 Jul 2024

📅20/07/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
30%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.15
Over 2.5
49%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.55
No
48%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
37%
+4.4pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.9pp
30%
Away Win
37%
-7.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
43%
+8.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
57%
-8.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.7pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Port Melbourne EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Green Gully EU Bookmakers 40%
-7% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -21%
2.05/1.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.70
-7% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -49% / -5%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
277 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 76%
34.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.0
24.8 Crosses 17.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Port Melbourne
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Green Gully
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
240 Passes 346
73% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Crosses 36
3 Yellow Cards 3
20.04.2024 Green Gully Green Gully 1-2 HT 1-1 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne AVNPL
09.06.2023 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne 1-3 HT 1-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
10.03.2023 Green Gully Green Gully 3-2 HT 2-2 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne AVNPL
03.06.2022 Green Gully Green Gully 1-3 HT 1-1 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne AVNPL
05.03.2022 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne 2-0 HT 0-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
14.05.2021 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne 2-0 HT 1-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
POST-MATCH Port Melbourne vs Green Gully
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Port Melbourne nicked a narrow win over Green Gully 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Port Melbourne as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Port Melbourne had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Port Melbourne and 1.33 for Green Gully.

What was the final score of Port Melbourne vs Green Gully?

Port Melbourne 3-2 Green Gully in the Australia - National Premier League on 20/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Port Melbourne vs Green Gully?

Before kick-off our model rated a Port Melbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Port Melbourne 42%, draw 28%, Green Gully 30%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Port Melbourne), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Port Melbourne) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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