Hemel Hempstead Town 1-0 Tonbridge Angels — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 28 Feb 2026

📅28/02/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.96
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.97
Over
45%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1
32%
3.39
2-3
36%
1.74
4-5
21%
3.15
6+
11%
11.25
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.39 — our 32% vs market 22.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
47%
-0.8pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.8pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
47%
+8.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
53%
-8.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.1pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hemel Hempstead Town EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Tonbridge Angels EU Bookmakers 31%
-4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +1%
1.37/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.50
-11% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
361 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hemel Hempstead Town
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Tonbridge Angels
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.11.2025 Tonbridge Angels Tonbridge Angels 1-3 HT 1-0 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town İCON
01.03.2025 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town 2-0 HT 0-0 Tonbridge Angels Tonbridge Angels İCON
23.11.2024 Tonbridge Angels Tonbridge Angels 2-0 HT 0-0 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town İCON
13.01.2024 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town 2-0 HT 0-0 Tonbridge Angels Tonbridge Angels İCON
07.10.2023 Tonbridge Angels Tonbridge Angels 3-3 HT 2-2 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town İCON
07.04.2023 Tonbridge Angels Tonbridge Angels 1-1 HT 0-0 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town İCON
POST-MATCH Hemel Hempstead Town vs Tonbridge Angels
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hemel Hempstead Town edged past Tonbridge Angels 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Hemel Hempstead Town as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hemel Hempstead Town had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Hemel Hempstead Town and 1.17 for Tonbridge Angels.

What was the final score of Hemel Hempstead Town vs Tonbridge Angels?

Hemel Hempstead Town 1-0 Tonbridge Angels in the England - Conference on 28/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hemel Hempstead Town vs Tonbridge Angels?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hemel Hempstead Town win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Hemel Hempstead Town 46%, draw 24%, Tonbridge Angels 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hemel Hempstead Town), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hemel Hempstead Town) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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