Auckland 3-0 Melbourne City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 28 Feb 2026

📅28/02/2026 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.09
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
27%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.78
Over 2.5
53%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.76
No
44%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.97
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
23%
3.65
6+ Goals
10%
15.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
3.01
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.15
X/1
10%
4.82
X/2
8%
6.63
X/X
10%
4.49
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
26.0
2/2
12%
4.91
2/X
9%
13.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.0 — our 8% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
44%
+4.1pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.8pp
27%
Away Win
29%
-2.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.8pp
44%
BTTS No
47%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Auckland EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 32%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -25%
1.13/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.55
-35% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -20%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
378 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 79%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.8
25.9 Crosses 21.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Auckland
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Melbourne City
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.12 xG 1.07
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
271 Passes 391
75% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 15
11 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
16.01.2026 Melbourne City Melbourne City 2-1 HT 0-1 Auckland Auckland AVUS
18.01.2025 Auckland Auckland 3-0 HT 3-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
15.12.2024 Melbourne City Melbourne City 2-2 HT 1-0 Auckland Auckland AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auckland
3-0
AWAY Melbourne City
2.96 xG 0.52
43% Ball Possession 57%
17 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 7
201 Passes 306
69% Pass Accuracy 77%
29 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Auckland vs Melbourne City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Auckland ran out comfortable winners over Melbourne City 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Auckland as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Auckland had 43% of the ball to Melbourne City's 57%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 2.96 to 0.52.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Auckland and 1.33 for Melbourne City.

What was the final score of Auckland vs Melbourne City?

Auckland 3-0 Melbourne City in the Australia - A-League on 28/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Auckland vs Melbourne City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Auckland win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Auckland 48%, draw 25%, Melbourne City 27%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Auckland), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Auckland) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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