Aarhus Fremad 4-1 Middelfart — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 28 Feb 2026

📅28/02/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.57
Draw
21%
3.94
Away
19%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.07
Over 2.5
56%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.76
No
47%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.65
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
3.0
6+ Goals
11%
9.88
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.98
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
15.05
X/1
15%
4.07
X/2
7%
10.55
X/X
10%
5.76
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.4
2/2
7%
8.38
2/X
4%
16.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.4 — our 8% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
60%
+0.8pp
21%
Draw
22%
-1.6pp
19%
Away Win
18%
+0.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.6pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aarhus Fremad EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Middelfart EU Bookmakers 21%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.63/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.64
+4% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +68%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
375 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 78%
30.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
19.5 Crosses 14.0
0.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aarhus Fremad
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Middelfart
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.77 xG 2.83
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
451 Passes 308
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
30 Box Touches 28
27 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
23.08.2025 Middelfart Middelfart 2-2 HT 1-1 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad DAN1
31.05.2025 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad 0-0 HT 0-0 Middelfart Middelfart DAN2
14.05.2025 Middelfart Middelfart 0-0 HT 0-0 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad DAN2
19.10.2024 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad 1-2 Middelfart Middelfart DAN2
10.08.2024 Middelfart Middelfart 3-1 HT 2-0 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad DAN2
31.05.2024 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad 0-3 HT 0-0 Middelfart Middelfart DAN2
POST-MATCH Aarhus Fremad vs Middelfart
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aarhus Fremad cruised past Middelfart 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Aarhus Fremad as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Middelfart led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Aarhus Fremad and 1.67 for Middelfart.

What was the final score of Aarhus Fremad vs Middelfart?

Aarhus Fremad 4-1 Middelfart in the Denmark 1st Division on 28/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aarhus Fremad vs Middelfart?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aarhus Fremad win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Aarhus Fremad 60%, draw 21%, Middelfart 19%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aarhus Fremad), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Aarhus Fremad) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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