Esbjerg 2-1 AC Horsens — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 28 Feb 2026

📅28/02/2026 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.08
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
44%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.86
Over 2.5
54%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.08
2-3 Goals
44%
1.72
4-5 Goals
22%
3.4
6+ Goals
11%
13.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.98
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
25.0
1/X
6%
13.25
X/1
11%
6.89
X/2
11%
4.92
X/X
12%
4.52
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
24%
2.95
2/X
6%
12.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.0 — our 9% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
29%
+3.0pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.8pp
44%
Away Win
44%
-0.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
50%
-3.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
50%
+3.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.0pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Esbjerg EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY AC Horsens EU Bookmakers 48%
-26% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +7%
1.21/1.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.10
-52% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
295 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 71%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.6
17.6 Crosses 20.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Esbjerg
0W-1D-5L
AWAY AC Horsens
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.33 xG 1.44
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
363 Passes 270
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
28 Box Touches 21
25 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.09.2025 AC Horsens AC Horsens 1-0 HT 1-0 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1
03.05.2025 Esbjerg Esbjerg 0-1 HT 0-1 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
18.04.2025 AC Horsens AC Horsens 3-2 HT 2-2 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1
14.03.2025 AC Horsens AC Horsens 2-1 HT 1-0 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1
04.08.2024 Esbjerg Esbjerg 0-1 HT 0-1 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
17.02.2024 AC Horsens AC Horsens 0-0 HT 0-0 Esbjerg Esbjerg HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Esbjerg
2-1
AWAY AC Horsens
2.26 xG 1.15
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 7
324 Passes 245
77% Pass Accuracy 69%
26 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Esbjerg vs AC Horsens
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Esbjerg nicked a narrow win over AC Horsens 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was AC Horsens at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Esbjerg had 54% of the ball to AC Horsens's 46%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 2.26 to 1.15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AC Horsens led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Esbjerg and 1.33 for AC Horsens.

What was the final score of Esbjerg vs AC Horsens?

Esbjerg 2-1 AC Horsens in the Denmark 1st Division on 28/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Esbjerg vs AC Horsens?

Before kick-off our model rated an AC Horsens win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Esbjerg 32%, draw 24%, AC Horsens 44%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AC Horsens) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AC Horsens) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
DAN1 More Denmark 1st Division
28 Feb 2026
16:00 Aarhus Fremad vs Middelfart Analysis →