AC Horsens 1-0 Esbjerg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 20 Sep 2025

📅20/09/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.89
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
24%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.95
Over 2.5
51%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
3.35
2-3 Goals
44%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.16
6+ Goals
9%
11.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.35 — our 25% vs market 22.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.55
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.25
X/1
13%
4.53
X/2
11%
7.67
X/X
11%
5.0
2/1
9%
22.8
2/2
8%
5.7
2/X
7%
14.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
49%
+2.8pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.2pp
24%
Away Win
26%
-1.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.8pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AC Horsens EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Esbjerg EU Bookmakers 29%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
1.77/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.83
-14% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +48% / -13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
331 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 73%
32.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
20.1 Crosses 11.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AC Horsens
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Esbjerg
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.39 xG 1.29
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 7
261 Passes 321
70% Pass Accuracy 73%
23 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.05.2025 Esbjerg Esbjerg 0-1 HT 0-1 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
18.04.2025 AC Horsens AC Horsens 3-2 HT 2-2 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1
14.03.2025 AC Horsens AC Horsens 2-1 HT 1-0 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1
04.08.2024 Esbjerg Esbjerg 0-1 HT 0-1 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
17.02.2024 AC Horsens AC Horsens 0-0 HT 0-0 Esbjerg Esbjerg HAZ
13.03.2022 AC Horsens AC Horsens 0-0 HT 0-0 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AC Horsens
1-0
AWAY Esbjerg
2.44 xG 0.92
43% Ball Possession 57%
15 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
294 Passes 384
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AC Horsens vs Esbjerg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AC Horsens squeezed past Esbjerg 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had AC Horsens as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, AC Horsens had 43% of the ball to Esbjerg's 57%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 2.44 to 0.92 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold AC Horsens's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AC Horsens had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for AC Horsens and 0.50 for Esbjerg.

What was the final score of AC Horsens vs Esbjerg?

AC Horsens 1-0 Esbjerg in the Denmark 1st Division on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AC Horsens vs Esbjerg?

Before kick-off our model rated a AC Horsens win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split AC Horsens 52%, draw 24%, Esbjerg 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AC Horsens) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AC Horsens) ✗ Over 2.5
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