Esbjerg 4-2 Roskilde — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - 2nd Division, 28 Mar 2024

📅28/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.29
Over 2.5
52%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.6
No
55%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.84
2-3 Goals
37%
1.93
4-5 Goals
26%
2.8
6+ Goals
11%
7.58
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.84 — our 26% vs market 15.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
57%
-4.3pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.9pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+7.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
40%
+8.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
60%
-8.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
58%
-13.0pp
55%
BTTS No
42%
+13.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Esbjerg EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Roskilde EU Bookmakers 23%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.74/1.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.83
-7% / -53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / -11%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
323 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Esbjerg
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Roskilde
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.09.2023 Roskilde Roskilde 3-3 HT 2-2 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN2
12.03.2023 Esbjerg Esbjerg 2-1 HT 1-0 Roskilde Roskilde DAN2
01.10.2022 Roskilde Roskilde 0-1 HT 0-1 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN2
POST-MATCH Esbjerg vs Roskilde
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Esbjerg got the better of Roskilde 4-2. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Esbjerg as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Esbjerg had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Esbjerg and 1.33 for Roskilde.

What was the final score of Esbjerg vs Roskilde?

Esbjerg 4-2 Roskilde in the Denmark - 2nd Division on 28/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Esbjerg vs Roskilde?

Before kick-off our model rated a Esbjerg win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Esbjerg 52%, draw 21%, Roskilde 27%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Esbjerg), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Esbjerg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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