Turan Tovuz 1-4 Karabağ — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 28 Mar 2025

📅28/03/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
15%
5.34
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
59%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.78
Over 2.5
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.09
No
57%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
11%
1/X
7%
X/1
4%
X/2
17%
X/X
16%
2/1
4%
2/2
30%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
15%
Home Win
16%
-0.3pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.3pp
58%
Away Win
61%
-3.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.8pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Turan Tovuz EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Karabağ EU Bookmakers 66%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +5%
1.21/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.25/0.62
+47% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +17%
39% Ball Possession 61%
7 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
235 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Turan Tovuz
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Karabağ
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
26.01.2025 Karabağ Karabağ 1-2 HT 1-0 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
01.11.2024 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 0-0 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
24.08.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 0-1 HT 0-1 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
17.05.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 4-3 HT 1-0 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
17.03.2024 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 1-3 HT 1-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
20.10.2023 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 2-2 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
POST-MATCH Turan Tovuz vs Karabağ
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ swept aside Turan Tovuz 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Turan Tovuz and 1.67 for Karabağ.

What was the final score of Turan Tovuz vs Karabağ?

Turan Tovuz 1-4 Karabağ in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 28/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Turan Tovuz vs Karabağ?

Before kick-off our model rated an Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Turan Tovuz 15%, draw 26%, Karabağ 58%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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