Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HNK Gorica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 28 Mar 2025

📅28/03/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.9
Draw
32%
3.35
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.74
Over 2.5
41%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.88
No
59%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.76
2-3 Goals
36%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
3.89
6+ Goals
9%
17.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.76 — our 37% vs market 29.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
20%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
49%
-8.1pp
32%
Draw
27%
+5.3pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+2.7pp
59%
Under 2.5
54%
+5.7pp
41%
Over 2.5
46%
-5.7pp
41%
BTTS Yes
49%
-8.0pp
59%
BTTS No
51%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 28%
-6% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +0%
1.30/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.35
-3% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -8%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
349 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 71%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
23.5 Crosses 14.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
3W-3D-0L
AWAY HNK Gorica
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.01 xG 1.04
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
315 Passes 272
75% Pass Accuracy 72%
19 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.12.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-4 HT 1-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
05.10.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-0 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
06.04.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
28.01.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-2 HT 1-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
08.10.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
01.05.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-2 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
1-1
AWAY HNK Gorica
1.28 xG 0.53
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 3
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 0
428 Passes 346
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Gorica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiva Zagreb and HNK Gorica shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Lokomotiva Zagreb at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, Lokomotiva Zagreb had 54% of the ball to HNK Gorica's 46%, shots finished 11-3, expected goals 1.28 to 0.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiva Zagreb had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Lokomotiva Zagreb and 1.00 for HNK Gorica.

What was the final score of Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Gorica?

Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HNK Gorica in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 28/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Gorica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiva Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiva Zagreb 41%, draw 32%, HNK Gorica 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Lokomotiva Zagreb), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lokomotiva Zagreb) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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