Ceuta 2-1 Cadiz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 28 Mar 2026

Ceuta
2-1 HT 1-0
Cadiz
📅28/03/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division – 2025/2026

Ceuta vs Cadiz Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.92
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.99
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
3.63
6+ Goals
9%
15.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.99 — our 34% vs market 26.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.69
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
4%
13.15
X/1
13%
4.58
X/2
11%
7.44
X/X
20%
4.51
2/1
9%
25.0
2/2
13%
5.7
2/X
6%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
48%
-7.5pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.1pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.0pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ceuta v Cadiz — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ceuta EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Cadiz EU Bookmakers 29%
+37% / +37% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.80/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.56
+37% / +80% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
308 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 75%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
18.7 Crosses 17.7
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.7

Ceuta vs Cadiz Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ceuta
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Cadiz
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.96 xG 0.96
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 1
424 Passes 283
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 11
24 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.09.2025 Cadiz Cadiz 0-0 HT 0-0 Ceuta Ceuta İS2

Ceuta 2-1 Cadiz — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ceuta
2-1
AWAY Cadiz
0.99 xG 0.60
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 2
283 Passes 240
77% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ceuta vs Cadiz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ceuta nicked a narrow win over Cadiz 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 29%) promised a tight game; Ceuta found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ceuta had 53% of the ball to Cadiz's 47%, shots finished 8-4, expected goals 0.99 to 0.60.

What was the final score of Ceuta vs Cadiz?

Ceuta 2-1 Cadiz in the Spain - 2nd Division on 28/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ceuta vs Cadiz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ceuta win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Ceuta 40%, draw 30%, Cadiz 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ceuta) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ceuta) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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