Valladolid 0-1 Burgos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 28 Mar 2026

📅28/03/2026 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.51
Over 2.5
40%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.09
No
55%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.18
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
18%
5.24
6+ Goals
8%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.3
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
5%
14.4
X/1
10%
4.63
X/2
14%
6.25
X/X
19%
3.68
2/1
8%
33.0
2/2
9%
5.21
2/X
5%
15.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Valladolid win — 41%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-0.8pp
29%
Draw
30%
-0.1pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.9pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-2.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+2.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.3pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valladolid EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Burgos EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.41/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.28
+30% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +9%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
313 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 78%
29.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
29.2 Crosses 16.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valladolid
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Burgos
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.16 xG 0.77
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
364 Passes 228
80% Pass Accuracy 69%
26 Box Touches 13
24 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
12.10.2025 Burgos Burgos 0-1 HT 0-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS2
27.07.2024 Valladolid Valladolid 1-1 HT 1-0 Burgos Burgos HAZ
13.01.2024 Burgos Burgos 1-0 HT 1-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS2
01.10.2023 Valladolid Valladolid 3-0 HT 2-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
23.07.2022 Burgos Burgos 0-0 HT 0-0 Valladolid Valladolid HAZ
08.01.2022 Valladolid Valladolid 1-0 HT 0-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valladolid
0-1
AWAY Burgos
1.26 xG 1.06
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
404 Passes 346
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 8
28 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Valladolid vs Burgos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burgos edged past Valladolid 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Valladolid at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Valladolid had 54% of the ball to Burgos's 46%, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 1.26 to 1.06.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valladolid had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Valladolid and 0.33 for Burgos.

What was the final score of Valladolid vs Burgos?

Valladolid 0-1 Burgos in the Spain - 2nd Division on 28/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valladolid vs Burgos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valladolid win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Valladolid 41%, draw 29%, Burgos 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Valladolid) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Valladolid) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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