Valladolid vs Burgos Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Valladolid v Burgos — Team-Based Signals
Valladolid vs Burgos Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-0
HT 2-0
Burgos
İS2
0-0
HT 0-0
Valladolid
HAZ
1-0
HT 0-0
Burgos
İS2
Valladolid 0-1 Burgos — Actual Match Statistics
Burgos edged past Valladolid 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Valladolid at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Valladolid had 54% of the ball to Burgos's 46%, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 1.26 to 1.06.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valladolid had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Valladolid and 0.33 for Burgos.
What was the final score of Valladolid vs Burgos?
Valladolid 0-1 Burgos in the Spain - 2nd Division on 28/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Valladolid vs Burgos?
Before kick-off our model rated a Valladolid win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Valladolid 41%, draw 29%, Burgos 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Valladolid) went the other way.