One Knoxville vs Richmond Kickers Prediction — Model Probabilities
One Knoxville v Richmond Kickers — Team-Based Signals
One Knoxville vs Richmond Kickers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
One Knoxville 1-0 Richmond Kickers — Actual Match Statistics
One Knoxville nicked a narrow win over Richmond Kickers 1-0. Level at 0-0 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half.
The way our numbers pointed is the way it went: our model had One Knoxville as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 47%, coin-flips both. The market went further still — the over-2.5 price closed at 1.91, about 52%.
Under the surface, One Knoxville had 63% of the ball to Richmond Kickers's 37%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.99 to 0.62 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold One Knoxville's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Richmond Kickers led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for One Knoxville and 1.33 for Richmond Kickers.
One Knoxville vs Richmond Kickers Result & Final Score
One Knoxville 1-0 Richmond Kickers in the USA - USL League 1 on 28/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
One Knoxville vs Richmond Kickers Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a One Knoxville win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split One Knoxville 54%, draw 25%, Richmond Kickers 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (One Knoxville), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.