Tromsö 0-3 Sarpsborg 08 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
23%
3.81
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.22
6+ Goals
11%
11.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.81 — our 23% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.92
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
5%
12.75
X/1
14%
4.9
X/2
8%
6.77
X/X
10%
4.92
2/1
8%
24.45
2/2
16%
4.62
2/X
11%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-1.7pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.6pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tromsö EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Sarpsborg 08 EU Bookmakers 33%
-7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +23%
1.40/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.37
-17% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
374 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 76%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
18.3 Crosses 19.3
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tromsö
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sarpsborg 08
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.11 xG 1.25
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
456 Passes 394
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
26.08.2023 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 4-0 HT 1-0 Tromsö Tromsö NOR
04.06.2023 Tromsö Tromsö 2-1 HT 0-1 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
23.10.2022 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 1-1 HT 0-0 Tromsö Tromsö NOR
24.04.2022 Tromsö Tromsö 2-5 HT 1-2 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
05.12.2021 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 0-1 HT 0-1 Tromsö Tromsö NOR
30.05.2021 Tromsö Tromsö 0-2 HT 0-2 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tromsö
0-3
AWAY Sarpsborg 08
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 3
433 Passes 384
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
POST-MATCH Tromsö vs Sarpsborg 08
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sarpsborg 08 cruised past Tromsö 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Tromsö at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Tromsö had 53% of the ball to Sarpsborg 08's 47%, shots finished 8-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sarpsborg 08 led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Tromsö and 2.17 for Sarpsborg 08.

What was the final score of Tromsö vs Sarpsborg 08?

Tromsö 0-3 Sarpsborg 08 in the Norway - Eliteserien on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tromsö vs Sarpsborg 08?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tromsö win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Tromsö 42%, draw 26%, Sarpsborg 08 32%. The final score 0-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Tromsö) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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