Barracas Central 2-1 Union Santa Fe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 28 Apr 2025

📅28/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.8
Draw
32%
2.83
Away
26%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.45
Over 2.5
33%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.16
No
62%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
1.99
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
15%
5.99
6+ Goals
8%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
4.68
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.85
X/1
15%
5.77
X/2
10%
5.24
X/X
18%
3.36
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
10%
4.04
2/X
7%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
32%
+9.9pp
31%
Draw
32%
-0.4pp
26%
Away Win
36%
-9.5pp
67%
Under 2.5
65%
+1.7pp
33%
Over 2.5
35%
-1.7pp
38%
BTTS Yes
42%
-3.7pp
62%
BTTS No
58%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barracas Central EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Santa Fe EU Bookmakers 39%
+16% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -20%
1.11/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.10
+8% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -15%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
246 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 73%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
17.4 Crosses 22.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barracas Central
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Union Santa Fe
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
1.22 xG 1.57
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 21
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
242 Passes 196
71% Pass Accuracy 67%
20 Box Touches 27
25 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.05.2024 Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe 2-0 HT 1-0 Barracas Central Barracas Central ARJ
13.02.2023 Barracas Central Barracas Central 1-1 HT 1-1 Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe ARJ
15.06.2022 Barracas Central Barracas Central 1-2 HT 0-2 Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe ARJ
26.04.2019 Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe 0-1 HT 0-1 Barracas Central Barracas Central ARJK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barracas Central
2-1
AWAY Union Santa Fe
1.35 xG 0.67
43% Ball Possession 57%
19 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 1
208 Passes 332
67% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 4
19 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Barracas Central vs Union Santa Fe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barracas Central nicked a narrow win over Union Santa Fe 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Barracas Central as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Barracas Central had 43% of the ball to Union Santa Fe's 57%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 1.35 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Union Santa Fe led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Barracas Central and 1.25 for Union Santa Fe.

What was the final score of Barracas Central vs Union Santa Fe?

Barracas Central 2-1 Union Santa Fe in the Argentina - Premier League on 28/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barracas Central vs Union Santa Fe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barracas Central win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Barracas Central 42%, draw 31%, Union Santa Fe 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barracas Central) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Barracas Central) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ARJ More Argentina - Premier League
28 Apr 2025
01:00 Instituto Cordoba vs CA Sarmiento Analysis →
01:00 Lanus vs San Martin San Juan Analysis →
03:15 Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra Analysis →
23:15 Godoy Cruz vs Atletico Tucuman Analysis →