Utrecht II 2-3 Volendam — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 28 Apr 2025

Utrecht II
2-3 HT 2-1
Volendam
📅28/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2024/2025

Utrecht II vs Volendam Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.71
Draw
22%
4.34
Away
57%
1.49
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.61
Over 2.5
50%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.56
No
53%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
5.61
2-3 Goals
39%
2.02
4-5 Goals
23%
2.52
6+ Goals
13%
5.56
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.61 — our 25% vs market 12.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
8.84
1/2
9%
18.7
1/X
6%
17.4
X/1
9%
12.35
X/2
18%
4.3
X/X
10%
7.51
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
30%
1.81
2/X
6%
15.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
18%
+3.4pp
22%
Draw
20%
+2.0pp
57%
Away Win
62%
-5.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
35%
+15.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
65%
-15.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
60%
-12.8pp
53%
BTTS No
40%
+12.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Utrecht II v Volendam — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Utrecht II EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Volendam EU Bookmakers 67%
-1% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +3%
1.04/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.16/0.83
-25% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +50%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
262 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 432 · 80%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.4
13.4 Crosses 21.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 0.7

Utrecht II vs Volendam Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Utrecht II
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Volendam
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.96 xG 1.80
39% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 8
256 Passes 446
72% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 30
11 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
08.11.2024 Volendam Volendam 2-0 HT 0-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
04.02.2022 Volendam Volendam 2-0 HT 2-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
22.11.2021 Utrecht II Utrecht II 0-1 HT 0-0 Volendam Volendam HOL2
16.04.2021 Utrecht II Utrecht II 2-3 HT 2-2 Volendam Volendam HOL2
11.09.2020 Volendam Volendam 0-1 HT 0-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
24.02.2020 Utrecht II Utrecht II 2-1 HT 1-1 Volendam Volendam HOL2

Utrecht II 2-3 Volendam — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Utrecht II
2-3
AWAY Volendam
1.59 xG 3.67
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 28
4 Shots on Target 11
3 Corners 12
251 Passes 328
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 49
10 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Utrecht II vs Volendam
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Volendam squeezed past Utrecht II 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Volendam as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Utrecht II had 44% of the ball to Volendam's 56%, shots finished 13-28, expected goals 1.59 to 3.67 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Volendam's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Volendam led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Utrecht II and 1.50 for Volendam.

What was the final score of Utrecht II vs Volendam?

Utrecht II 2-3 Volendam in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 28/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Utrecht II vs Volendam?

Before kick-off our model rated an Volendam win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Utrecht II 21%, draw 22%, Volendam 57%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Volendam) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Volendam) ✗ BTTS No
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