VVV-Venlo 3-1 De Graafschap — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 28 Apr 2025

📅28/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
3.17
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
37%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.29
Over 2.5
54%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.53
No
48%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.62
2-3 Goals
41%
1.9
4-5 Goals
24%
2.71
6+ Goals
10%
7.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
15%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
28%
+12.7pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.7pp
37%
Away Win
48%
-10.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
40%
+6.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
60%
-6.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
61%
-9.4pp
48%
BTTS No
39%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME VVV-Venlo EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 52%
+4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -25%
1.52/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.21
+14% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / -14%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
293 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 391 · 80%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.2
19.3 Crosses 24.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME VVV-Venlo
4W-0D-2L
AWAY De Graafschap
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.72 xG 1.84
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
284 Passes 373
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 29
18 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
01.12.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 3-1 HT 2-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
26.01.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 3-0 HT 1-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
01.09.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 2-0 HT 1-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
12.05.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 2-1 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
12.08.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-2 HT 1-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
09.01.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-2 HT 0-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME VVV-Venlo
3-1
AWAY De Graafschap
3.21 xG 1.89
37% Ball Possession 63%
18 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 9
202 Passes 400
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
31 Box Touches 48
26 Crosses 31
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH VVV-Venlo vs De Graafschap
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

VVV-Venlo got the better of De Graafschap 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (41% / 22% / 37%) promised a tight game; VVV-Venlo found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, VVV-Venlo had 37% of the ball to De Graafschap's 63%, shots finished 18-20, expected goals 3.21 to 1.89.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, VVV-Venlo had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for VVV-Venlo and 1.50 for De Graafschap.

What was the final score of VVV-Venlo vs De Graafschap?

VVV-Venlo 3-1 De Graafschap in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 28/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for VVV-Venlo vs De Graafschap?

Before kick-off our model rated a VVV-Venlo win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split VVV-Venlo 41%, draw 22%, De Graafschap 37%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (VVV-Venlo), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (VVV-Venlo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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