Gzira United 0-2 Naxxar Lions — Result, Statistics & Match Review — MALTP, 28 Apr 2025

📅28/04/2025 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
31%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.67
Over 2.5
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
3%
X/1
17%
X/2
14%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
49%
-7.7pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.2pp
31%
Away Win
24%
+7.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.7pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gzira United EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Naxxar Lions EU Bookmakers 27%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
0.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.45/2.00
-100% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +125% / -39%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
343 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gzira United
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Naxxar Lions
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 3
25.01.2025 Gzira United Gzira United 1-0 HT 1-0 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions MALTP
20.10.2024 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions 1-1 HT 1-0 Gzira United Gzira United MLTP
10.02.2024 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions 0-1 HT 0-0 Gzira United Gzira United MLTP
26.09.2023 Gzira United Gzira United 1-1 HT 0-0 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions MLTP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gzira United
0-2
AWAY Naxxar Lions
64% Ball Possession 36%
5 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 3
17 Corners 0
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gzira United vs Naxxar Lions
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naxxar Lions got the better of Gzira United 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Gzira United at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Gzira United had 64% of the ball to Naxxar Lions's 36%, shots finished 5-5.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Gzira United had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Gzira United and 0.50 for Naxxar Lions.

What was the final score of Gzira United vs Naxxar Lions?

Gzira United 0-2 Naxxar Lions in the MALTP on 28/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gzira United vs Naxxar Lions?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gzira United win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Gzira United 41%, draw 27%, Naxxar Lions 31%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Gzira United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gzira United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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