Monterrey 1-2 Pachuca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 28 Apr 2025

Monterrey
1-2 HT 0-0
Pachuca
📅28/04/2025 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Monterrey vs Pachuca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.8
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.01
6+ Goals
12%
9.64
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.57
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
12.75
X/1
14%
4.82
X/2
10%
8.14
X/X
13%
5.22
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.9
2/2
11%
5.81
2/X
8%
13.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.9 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-4.9pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.8pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.1pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Monterrey v Pachuca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monterrey EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Pachuca EU Bookmakers 29%
-5% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +12%
1.45/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.48
-19% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -9%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
324 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 75%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
21.5 Crosses 14.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6

Monterrey vs Pachuca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monterrey
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Pachuca
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.46 xG 1.07
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
397 Passes 339
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.01.2025 Monterrey Monterrey 2-3 HT 1-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
08.07.2024 Pachuca Pachuca 0-1 HT 0-1 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
11.02.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 3-2 HT 2-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
05.11.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 0-2 HT 0-2 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
13.03.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 1-2 HT 1-1 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
24.10.2022 Monterrey Monterrey 0-1 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK

Monterrey 1-2 Pachuca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monterrey
1-2
AWAY Pachuca
0.97 xG 2.40
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 22
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 8
247 Passes 308
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 28
17 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Monterrey vs Pachuca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pachuca squeezed past Monterrey 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Monterrey at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Monterrey had 45% of the ball to Pachuca's 55%, shots finished 13-22, expected goals 0.97 to 2.40 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Pachuca's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monterrey had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Monterrey and 1.17 for Pachuca.

What was the final score of Monterrey vs Pachuca?

Monterrey 1-2 Pachuca in the Mexico - Primera on 28/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monterrey vs Pachuca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monterrey win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Monterrey 44%, draw 28%, Pachuca 28%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Monterrey), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Monterrey) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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