Arema Malang 0-4 Persebaya Surabaya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Indonesia League 1, 28 Apr 2026

📅28/04/2026 · 🕒11:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.38
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
32%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
38%
+6.1pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.1pp
32%
Away Win
35%
-3.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.2pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arema Malang EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Persebaya Surabaya EU Bookmakers 38%
-4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +6%
1.59/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.17
+17% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +11%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
329 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arema Malang
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Persebaya Surabaya
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 9
234 Passes 285
7 Yellow Cards 3
22.11.2025 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 1-1 HT 0-0 Arema Malang Arema Malang ENDL1
28.04.2025 Arema Malang Arema Malang 1-1 HT 0-0 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
07.12.2024 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 3-2 HT 2-1 Arema Malang Arema Malang ENDL1
27.03.2024 Arema Malang Arema Malang 0-1 HT 0-1 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
01.10.2022 Arema Malang Arema Malang 2-3 HT 2-2 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
23.02.2022 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 HT 0-0 Arema Malang Arema Malang ENDL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arema Malang
0-4
AWAY Persebaya Surabaya
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arema Malang vs Persebaya Surabaya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Persebaya Surabaya ran out comfortable winners over Arema Malang 4-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Arema Malang at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Arema Malang had 51% of the ball to Persebaya Surabaya's 49%, shots finished 13-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Persebaya Surabaya led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Arema Malang and 1.67 for Persebaya Surabaya.

What was the final score of Arema Malang vs Persebaya Surabaya?

Arema Malang 0-4 Persebaya Surabaya in the Indonesia League 1 on 28/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arema Malang vs Persebaya Surabaya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arema Malang win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Arema Malang 44%, draw 24%, Persebaya Surabaya 32%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Arema Malang), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arema Malang) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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