Mbarara City 2-1 Express — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 28 Apr 2026

📅28/04/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
29%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.51
Over 2.5
35%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.16
No
55%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
13%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
22%
X/2
8%
X/X
4%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
14%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
49%
-6.7pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.4pp
29%
Away Win
22%
+7.0pp
65%
Under 2.5
62%
+2.9pp
35%
Over 2.5
38%
-2.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
42%
+3.3pp
55%
BTTS No
58%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mbarara City EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Express EU Bookmakers 25%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -13%
1.09/0.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.50/1.25
-22% / +94% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / +4%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
357 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mbarara City
0W-1D-3L
AWAY Express
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.25
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
05.11.2025 Express Express 4-1 HT 2-0 Mbarara City Mbarara City UGA
28.11.2024 Express Express 3-1 HT 2-1 Mbarara City Mbarara City UGA
25.03.2022 Mbarara City Mbarara City 0-0 HT 0-0 Express Express UGA
07.12.2021 Express Express 2-0 HT 1-0 Mbarara City Mbarara City UGA
POST-MATCH Mbarara City vs Express
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mbarara City nicked a narrow win over Express 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Mbarara City as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Express led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Mbarara City and 2.25 for Express.

What was the final score of Mbarara City vs Express?

Mbarara City 2-1 Express in the Uganda - Premier League on 28/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mbarara City vs Express?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mbarara City win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Mbarara City 43%, draw 29%, Express 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mbarara City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mbarara City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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