Mbarara City vs Express Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Mbarara City v Express — Team-Based Signals
Mbarara City vs Express Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Express
UGA
2-0
HT 1-0
Mbarara City
UGA
Mbarara City nicked a narrow win over Express 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Mbarara City as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.
Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Express led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Mbarara City and 2.25 for Express.
What was the final score of Mbarara City vs Express?
Mbarara City 2-1 Express in the Uganda - Premier League on 28/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Mbarara City vs Express?
Before kick-off our model rated a Mbarara City win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Mbarara City 43%, draw 29%, Express 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mbarara City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.