Gnistan 3-0 Ilves Tampere — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Suomen Cup, 28 May 2025

📅28/05/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.94
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
44%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
30%
-2.6pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.1pp
44%
Away Win
43%
+0.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.6pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gnistan EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Ilves Tampere EU Bookmakers 48%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
0.50/3.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.80/1.14
-66% / -57% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +38%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
240 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gnistan
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Ilves Tampere
3.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.78 xG 1.81
38% Ball Possession 62%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
213 Passes 412
69% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 4
01.09.2024 Gnistan Gnistan 1-1 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
13.04.2024 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 4-6 HT 2-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gnistan
3-0
AWAY Ilves Tampere
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gnistan vs Ilves Tampere
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gnistan swept aside Ilves Tampere 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Ilves Tampere at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Gnistan had 46% of the ball to Ilves Tampere's 54%, shots finished 13-12.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Gnistan had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.50 goals for Gnistan and 2.50 for Ilves Tampere.

What was the final score of Gnistan vs Ilves Tampere?

Gnistan 3-0 Ilves Tampere in the Finland - Suomen Cup on 28/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gnistan vs Ilves Tampere?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ilves Tampere win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Gnistan 28%, draw 28%, Ilves Tampere 44%. The final score 3-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ilves Tampere) ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FİK More Finland - Suomen Cup
28 May 2025
18:00 Haka vs Union Plaani Analysis →
18:00 IFK Mariehamn vs TPS Turku Analysis →
18:30 Honka vs EIF Analysis →
18:30 P-Iirot vs VPS Analysis →
18:30 Oulu vs VJS Analysis →
18:30 KPV Kokkola vs KTP Kotka Analysis →