South Melbourne 1-2 Green Gully — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 28 Jun 2026

📅28/06/2026 · 🕒08:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.42
Draw
17%
4.34
Away
26%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.29
Over 2.5
58%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
66%
-8.4pp
17%
Draw
20%
-2.7pp
26%
Away Win
14%
+11.1pp
42%
Under 2.5
40%
+2.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
60%
-2.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.9pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Green Gully EU Bookmakers 18%
-2% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -24%
2.02/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/2.85
-14% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / -20%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
421 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 231 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.6 Crosses 23.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME South Melbourne
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Green Gully
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
13.03.2026 Green Gully Green Gully 0-1 HT 0-1 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
03.08.2025 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-1 HT 1-1 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
25.04.2025 Green Gully Green Gully 1-0 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
13.07.2024 Green Gully Green Gully 0-1 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
12.04.2024 South Melbourne South Melbourne 3-0 HT 1-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
28.05.2023 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-0 HT 1-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
POST-MATCH South Melbourne vs Green Gully
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Green Gully squeezed past South Melbourne 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had South Melbourne at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, South Melbourne had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for South Melbourne and 0.33 for Green Gully.

What was the final score of South Melbourne vs Green Gully?

South Melbourne 1-2 Green Gully in the Australia - National Premier League on 28/06/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for South Melbourne vs Green Gully?

Before kick-off our model rated a South Melbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split South Melbourne 57%, draw 17%, Green Gully 26%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (South Melbourne), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (South Melbourne) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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