Zürich 4-2 Winterthur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 28 Jul 2024

📅28/07/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.66
Draw
30%
3.64
Away
29%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
2.1
Over 2.5
42%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
4.1
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
20%
3.06
6+ Goals
9%
9.73
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.1 — our 31% vs market 19.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.13
1/2
10%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.1
X/1
17%
4.12
X/2
10%
9.9
X/X
18%
5.49
2/1
7%
21.85
2/2
9%
7.24
2/X
6%
14.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
56%
-14.8pp
30%
Draw
24%
+6.4pp
29%
Away Win
20%
+8.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
44%
+14.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
56%
-14.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.6pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zürich EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Winterthur EU Bookmakers 24%
-5% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
1.60/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.42
-20% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
398 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 71%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
19.7 Crosses 11.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zürich
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Winterthur
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.12 xG 1.14
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
275 Passes 330
73% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 25
19 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 2
12.05.2024 Winterthur Winterthur 1-3 HT 1-2 Zürich Zürich İSV
03.04.2024 Zürich Zürich 0-0 HT 0-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
28.02.2024 Zürich Zürich 0-2 HT 0-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSVK
13.12.2023 Winterthur Winterthur 2-1 HT 1-1 Zürich Zürich İSV
07.10.2023 Zürich Zürich 3-2 HT 2-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
25.05.2023 Winterthur Winterthur 0-2 HT 0-2 Zürich Zürich İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zürich
4-2
AWAY Winterthur
4.19 xG 0.76
51% Ball Possession 49%
36 Total Shots 9
14 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
342 Passes 312
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
44 Box Touches 16
27 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Zürich vs Winterthur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zürich beat Winterthur 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Zürich as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Zürich had 51% of the ball to Winterthur's 49%, shots finished 36-9, expected goals 4.19 to 0.76.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zürich had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Zürich and 1.17 for Winterthur.

What was the final score of Zürich vs Winterthur?

Zürich 4-2 Winterthur in the Switzerland - Super League on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zürich vs Winterthur?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zürich win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Zürich 41%, draw 30%, Winterthur 29%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Zürich) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Zürich) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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