Alianza 1-1 Municipal Limeno — Result, Statistics & Match Review — El Salvador - Primera Liga, 28 Jul 2024

📅28/07/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.57
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
17%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.86
Over 2.5
51%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.95
No
54%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
59%
-4.6pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.2pp
18%
Away Win
17%
+0.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
50%
-1.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
50%
+1.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.8pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Municipal Limeno EU Bookmakers 21%
-6% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / +3%
1.83/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.73
+5% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -11%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
380 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Municipal Limeno
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 2
26.05.2024 Alianza Alianza 5-0 HT 3-0 Municipal Limeno Municipal Limeno ELSAL
05.05.2024 Municipal Limeno Municipal Limeno 1-3 HT 1-1 Alianza Alianza ELSAL
21.03.2024 Alianza Alianza 4-0 HT 1-0 Municipal Limeno Municipal Limeno ELSAL
12.11.2023 Municipal Limeno Municipal Limeno 0-2 HT 0-1 Alianza Alianza ELSAL
16.09.2023 Alianza Alianza 0-0 HT 0-0 Municipal Limeno Municipal Limeno ELSAL
25.04.2022 Alianza Alianza 4-0 HT 3-0 Municipal Limeno Municipal Limeno ELSAL
POST-MATCH Alianza vs Municipal Limeno
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza and Municipal Limeno couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Alianza at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Alianza and 0.17 for Municipal Limeno.

What was the final score of Alianza vs Municipal Limeno?

Alianza 1-1 Municipal Limeno in the El Salvador - Primera Liga on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza vs Municipal Limeno?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Alianza 55%, draw 28%, Municipal Limeno 18%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Alianza) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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