Columbus Crew 4-1 Aston Villa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 28 Jul 2024

📅28/07/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.87
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
42%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.63
Over 2.5
58%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.46
No
49%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
6.17
2-3 Goals
40%
2.08
4-5 Goals
27%
2.55
6+ Goals
9%
5.57
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
12%
2/2
25%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
22%
+11.1pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.4pp
42%
Away Win
55%
-13.5pp
42%
Under 2.5
34%
+7.5pp
58%
Over 2.5
66%
-7.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
64%
-13.1pp
49%
BTTS No
36%
+13.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Columbus Crew EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 60%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -31%
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
245 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 441 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Columbus Crew vs Aston Villa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Columbus Crew ran out comfortable winners over Aston Villa 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Aston Villa at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

What was the final score of Columbus Crew vs Aston Villa?

Columbus Crew 4-1 Aston Villa in the Friendlies on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Columbus Crew vs Aston Villa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Columbus Crew 34%, draw 25%, Aston Villa 42%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Aston Villa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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