Arsenal 2-1 Manchester United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 28 Jul 2024

Arsenal
2-1 HT 1-1
Manchester United
📅28/07/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Friendlies – 2024/2025

Arsenal vs Manchester United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.89
Draw
29%
3.8
Away
27%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
2.59
Over 2.5
43%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.46
No
53%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
5.59
2-3 Goals
39%
2.02
4-5 Goals
19%
2.64
6+ Goals
10%
6.27
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.59 — our 32% vs market 13.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.5
1/2
9%
30.0
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
15%
4.72
X/2
7%
7.54
X/X
14%
6.39
2/1
7%
20.2
2/2
11%
4.71
2/X
8%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-4.9pp
29%
Draw
23%
+6.0pp
27%
Away Win
28%
-1.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
35%
+22.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
65%
-22.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
64%
-17.1pp
53%
BTTS No
36%
+17.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arsenal v Manchester United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester United EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.23/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.07
+14% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / +50%
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
438 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 80%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
9.8 Crosses 7.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1

Arsenal vs Manchester United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Manchester United
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.99 xG 0.97
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
410 Passes 342
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
37 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.05.2024 Manchester United Manchester United 0-1 HT 0-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
03.09.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 3-1 HT 1-1 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
23.07.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 0-2 HT 0-2 Manchester United Manchester United HAZ
22.01.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 3-2 HT 1-1 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
04.09.2022 Manchester United Manchester United 3-1 HT 1-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
23.04.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 3-1 HT 2-1 Manchester United Manchester United İNP

Arsenal 2-1 Manchester United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal
2-1
AWAY Manchester United
0.95 xG 0.56
58% Ball Possession 42%
6 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
381 Passes 246
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
28 Box Touches 20
7 Crosses 9
POST-MATCH Arsenal vs Manchester United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal squeezed past Manchester United 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Arsenal had 58% of the ball to Manchester United's 42%, shots finished 6-10, expected goals 0.95 to 0.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Arsenal and 1.50 for Manchester United.

What was the final score of Arsenal vs Manchester United?

Arsenal 2-1 Manchester United in the Friendlies on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Manchester United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 44%, draw 29%, Manchester United 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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