Manchester City 2-3 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 28 Jul 2024

📅28/07/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.02
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
33%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.38
Over 2.5
58%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.46
No
48%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.13
2-3 Goals
40%
1.96
4-5 Goals
26%
2.74
6+ Goals
11%
7.02
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.78
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
8%
12.6
X/1
8%
5.08
X/2
8%
7.03
X/X
9%
5.72
2/1
9%
21.85
2/2
19%
4.37
2/X
6%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-1.8pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.1pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+2.9pp
42%
Under 2.5
38%
+4.0pp
58%
Over 2.5
62%
-4.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
64%
-11.8pp
48%
BTTS No
36%
+11.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manchester City EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan EU Bookmakers 34%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
1.70/2.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/0.96
+84% / -66% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -56% / +17%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
377 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 81%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
7.7 Crosses 16.2
0.1 Yellow Cards 0.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manchester City
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Milan
3.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
7 Corners 6
27.07.2014 Manchester City Manchester City 5-1 HT 4-1 Milan Milan HAZ
31.07.2013 Milan Milan 3-5 HT 3-5 Manchester City Manchester City HAZ
09.08.2008 Manchester City Manchester City 1-0 HT 1-0 Milan Milan HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manchester City
2-3
AWAY Milan
1.39 xG 1.54
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 0
446 Passes 584
92% Pass Accuracy 91%
26 Box Touches 18
7 Crosses 4
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Manchester City vs Milan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan squeezed past Manchester City 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Manchester City at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Manchester City had 43% of the ball to Milan's 57%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 1.39 to 1.54.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Manchester City had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 3.67 goals for Manchester City and 1.33 for Milan.

What was the final score of Manchester City vs Milan?

Manchester City 2-3 Milan in the Friendlies on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manchester City vs Milan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Manchester City 44%, draw 23%, Milan 33%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Manchester City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Manchester City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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