Internacional 1-1 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 28 Jul 2025

📅28/07/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.2
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.54
6+ Goals
9%
14.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 29% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.98
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
8%
16.1
X/1
22%
3.98
X/2
7%
11.45
X/X
10%
5.36
2/1
9%
24.2
2/2
10%
9.81
2/X
7%
18.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
60%
-7.1pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.6pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+5.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.3pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Internacional EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 20%
-2% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -9%
1.92/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.50
+10% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -16%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
355 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 76%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
22.7 Crosses 18.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Internacional
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.41 xG 0.84
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
381 Passes 372
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.11.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-1 HT 0-0 Internacional Internacional BR1
08.07.2024 Internacional Internacional 1-2 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
27.10.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-2 HT 0-1 Internacional Internacional BR1
11.06.2023 Internacional Internacional 2-1 HT 2-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
14.02.2021 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-2 HT 0-1 Internacional Internacional BR1
19.10.2020 Internacional Internacional 2-0 HT 2-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Internacional
1-1
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.39 xG 1.03
56% Ball Possession 44%
27 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 5
432 Passes 333
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
28 Box Touches 11
35 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Internacional vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Internacional and Vasco da Gama shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Internacional at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (55%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Internacional had 56% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 44%, shots finished 27-15, expected goals 1.39 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Internacional had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Internacional and 0.67 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Internacional vs Vasco da Gama?

Internacional 1-1 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 28/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Internacional vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Internacional win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Internacional 53%, draw 25%, Vasco da Gama 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Internacional), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Internacional) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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