Flamengo 1-0 Atletico Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 28 Jul 2025

📅28/07/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.45
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
21%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.67
Over 2.5
48%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.4
No
52%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.6
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
4.33
6+ Goals
10%
22.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.81
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
19.65
X/1
18%
3.63
X/2
6%
14.4
X/X
9%
4.98
2/1
7%
29.0
2/2
9%
14.05
2/X
8%
22.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
64%
-9.2pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.1pp
21%
Away Win
13%
+8.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
38%
+10.3pp
52%
BTTS No
62%
-10.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Flamengo EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 16%
-8% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +22%
1.72/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.71
-2% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +110% / +11%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
448 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 76%
29.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.2
21.0 Crosses 9.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Flamengo
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.73 xG 1.12
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
368 Passes 368
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
26 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.11.2024 Flamengo Flamengo 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
10.11.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-1 HT 0-0 Flamengo Flamengo BRK
03.11.2024 Flamengo Flamengo 3-1 HT 2-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BRK
04.07.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-4 HT 0-2 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
30.11.2023 Flamengo Flamengo 0-3 HT 0-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
30.07.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-2 HT 1-0 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Flamengo
1-0
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
0.83 xG 1.11
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
445 Passes 250
89% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 13
13 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Flamengo edged past Atletico Mineiro 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Flamengo as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Flamengo had 61% of the ball to Atletico Mineiro's 39%, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 0.83 to 1.11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Flamengo had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Flamengo and 1.17 for Atletico Mineiro.

What was the final score of Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro?

Flamengo 1-0 Atletico Mineiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 28/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Flamengo win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Flamengo 55%, draw 24%, Atletico Mineiro 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Flamengo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Flamengo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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