Yanbian Longding 1-3 Yunnan Yukun — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.09
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
52%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.91
Over 2.5
39%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.9
No
62%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
3.36
2-3 Goals
36%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.52
6+ Goals
8%
13.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.36 — our 36% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
24%
X/X
14%
2/1
4%
2/2
23%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
17%
+5.7pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.4pp
52%
Away Win
60%
-8.2pp
61%
Under 2.5
48%
+12.6pp
39%
Over 2.5
52%
-12.6pp
38%
BTTS Yes
49%
-10.3pp
62%
BTTS No
51%
+10.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Yanbian Longding EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Yunnan Yukun EU Bookmakers 64%
+43% / +43% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
0.76/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/0.78
+80% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / +124%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
278 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 78%
13.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
16.8 Crosses 14.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Yanbian Longding
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Yunnan Yukun
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 5.00
0.16 xG 2.20
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 22
4 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 4
345 Passes 383
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
6 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 0
12.05.2024 Yunnan Yukun Yunnan Yukun 5-1 HT 1-0 Yanbian Longding Yanbian Longding ÇİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Yanbian Longding
1-3
AWAY Yunnan Yukun
1.22 xG 1.54
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 9
1 Corners 4
237 Passes 286
70% Pass Accuracy 74%
14 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Yanbian Longding vs Yunnan Yukun
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Yunnan Yukun beat Yanbian Longding 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Yunnan Yukun as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Yanbian Longding had 47% of the ball to Yunnan Yukun's 53%, shots finished 10-19, expected goals 1.22 to 1.54.

What was the final score of Yanbian Longding vs Yunnan Yukun?

Yanbian Longding 1-3 Yunnan Yukun in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Yanbian Longding vs Yunnan Yukun?

Before kick-off our model rated an Yunnan Yukun win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Yanbian Longding 23%, draw 25%, Yunnan Yukun 52%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Yunnan Yukun) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Yunnan Yukun) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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