Forest Green Rovers 1-0 Hartlepool United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 28 Sep 2024

Forest Green Rovers
1-0 HT 0-0
Hartlepool United
📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
England - National League – 2024/2025

Forest Green Rovers vs Hartlepool United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
54%
1.53
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
22%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
2.03
Over
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 ✓
26%
3.83
2-3
42%
1.83
4-5
22%
3.2
6+
10%
10.9
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.83 — our 26% vs market 21.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.96
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.3
X/1
22%
3.76
X/2
8%
10.95
X/X
12%
5.81
2/1
9%
21.85
2/2
8%
8.46
2/X
5%
16.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Forest Green Rovers win — 54% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
61%
-7.4pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.4pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+5.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.6pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Forest Green Rovers v Hartlepool United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Forest Green Rovers EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Hartlepool United EU Bookmakers 21%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +13%
2.26/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/2.24
+20% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -22%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
384 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9

Forest Green Rovers vs Hartlepool United Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Forest Green Rovers
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Hartlepool United
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.46 xG 0.92
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
338 Passes 285
76% Pass Accuracy 71%
22 Box Touches 10
22 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.04.2022 Forest Green Rovers Forest Green Rovers 1-1 HT 0-0 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United İN2
20.11.2021 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 1-3 HT 0-3 Forest Green Rovers Forest Green Rovers İN2

Forest Green Rovers 1-0 Hartlepool United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Forest Green Rovers
1-0
AWAY Hartlepool United
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 11
1 Passes 0
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Forest Green Rovers vs Hartlepool United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Forest Green Rovers edged past Hartlepool United 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Forest Green Rovers as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Forest Green Rovers had 52% of the ball to Hartlepool United's 48%, shots finished 13-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Forest Green Rovers had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Forest Green Rovers and 1.00 for Hartlepool United.

What was the final score of Forest Green Rovers vs Hartlepool United?

Forest Green Rovers 1-0 Hartlepool United in the England - National League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Forest Green Rovers vs Hartlepool United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Forest Green Rovers win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Forest Green Rovers 53%, draw 24%, Hartlepool United 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Forest Green Rovers), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Forest Green Rovers) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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