Southend United 1-3 Gateshead — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.8
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
38%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.4
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.49
6+ Goals
11%
13.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 27% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.37
1/2
7%
26.5
1/X
9%
12.7
X/1
16%
6.35
X/2
15%
5.13
X/X
9%
4.5
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
17%
3.22
2/X
8%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+3.6pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.4pp
38%
Away Win
40%
-2.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.3pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Southend United EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Gateshead EU Bookmakers 45%
-1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -6%
0.75/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.88/1.67
-42% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / -24%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
346 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Southend United
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Gateshead
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.02.2024 Southend United Southend United 0-1 HT 0-0 Gateshead Gateshead İBSL
25.11.2023 Gateshead Gateshead 1-1 HT 1-0 Southend United Southend United İBSL
18.02.2023 Southend United Southend United 1-0 HT 1-0 Gateshead Gateshead İBSL
19.11.2022 Gateshead Gateshead 3-1 HT 0-0 Southend United Southend United İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Southend United
1-3
AWAY Gateshead
33% Ball Possession 67%
0 Corners 0
1 Passes 2
POST-MATCH Southend United vs Gateshead
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gateshead saw off Southend United 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 26% / 38%) promised a tight game; Gateshead found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Southend United had 33% of the ball to Gateshead's 67%.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Gateshead led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Southend United and 1.25 for Gateshead.

What was the final score of Southend United vs Gateshead?

Southend United 1-3 Gateshead in the England - National League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Southend United vs Gateshead?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gateshead win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Southend United 35%, draw 26%, Gateshead 38%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gateshead), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gateshead) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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