Cambridge United 0-2 Lincoln City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.29
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
47%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.75
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.24
6+ Goals
10%
21.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.75 — our 33% vs market 30.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
5.39
1/2
10%
28.5
1/X
6%
14.05
X/1
11%
6.9
X/2
16%
4.48
X/X
10%
4.13
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
20%
2.93
2/X
12%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
28%
-2.1pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.5pp
47%
Away Win
44%
+2.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.1pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cambridge United EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Lincoln City EU Bookmakers 48%
+8% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
0.99/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.31
+5% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +13%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
260 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 72%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.1
17.0 Crosses 16.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cambridge United
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Lincoln City
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.90 xG 1.62
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
281 Passes 352
70% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.03.2024 Lincoln City Lincoln City 6-0 HT 2-0 Cambridge United Cambridge United İN1
28.11.2023 Cambridge United Cambridge United 0-3 HT 0-2 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN1
28.01.2023 Lincoln City Lincoln City 0-0 HT 0-0 Cambridge United Cambridge United İN1
03.09.2022 Cambridge United Cambridge United 2-0 HT 2-0 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN1
15.01.2022 Lincoln City Lincoln City 0-1 HT 0-0 Cambridge United Cambridge United İN1
11.09.2021 Cambridge United Cambridge United 1-5 HT 0-3 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cambridge United
0-2
AWAY Lincoln City
0.80 xG 1.92
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
344 Passes 197
77% Pass Accuracy 67%
25 Box Touches 30
19 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cambridge United vs Lincoln City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lincoln City beat Cambridge United 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lincoln City as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Cambridge United had 61% of the ball to Lincoln City's 39%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 0.80 to 1.92.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lincoln City led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Cambridge United and 2.33 for Lincoln City.

What was the final score of Cambridge United vs Lincoln City?

Cambridge United 0-2 Lincoln City in the England - 1st Division on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cambridge United vs Lincoln City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lincoln City win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Cambridge United 25%, draw 28%, Lincoln City 47%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lincoln City), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lincoln City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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