Stevenage 1-0 Charlton Athletic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.33
Draw
31%
3.04
Away
33%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.67
Over 2.5
43%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
2.74
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.28
6+ Goals
9%
21.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.74 — our 32% vs market 30.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.47
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
12.85
X/1
8%
5.09
X/2
8%
6.09
X/X
15%
3.93
2/1
7%
31.0
2/2
18%
4.48
2/X
10%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
39%
-3.7pp
31%
Draw
30%
+1.6pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+2.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.1pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stevenage EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Charlton Athletic EU Bookmakers 34%
-10% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +3%
1.10/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.25
-26% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
246 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 68%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
24.2 Crosses 17.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stevenage
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Charlton Athletic
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.98 xG 0.93
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
197 Passes 365
62% Pass Accuracy 75%
25 Box Touches 26
22 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.04.2024 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic 0-0 HT 0-0 Stevenage Stevenage İN1
16.09.2023 Stevenage Stevenage 1-1 HT 1-0 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic İN1
08.11.2022 Stevenage Stevenage 1-1 HT 1-0 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic İNLK
09.10.2018 Stevenage Stevenage 0-8 HT 0-3 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic İNTK
22.07.2017 Stevenage Stevenage 1-2 HT 1-1 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic HAZ
25.02.2012 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic 2-0 HT 0-0 Stevenage Stevenage İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stevenage
1-0
AWAY Charlton Athletic
0.51 xG 0.30
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 6
192 Passes 306
64% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 26
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Stevenage vs Charlton Athletic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stevenage nicked a narrow win over Charlton Athletic 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 31% / 33%) promised a tight game; Stevenage found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Stevenage had 43% of the ball to Charlton Athletic's 57%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 0.51 to 0.30.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Charlton Athletic led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Stevenage and 2.33 for Charlton Athletic.

What was the final score of Stevenage vs Charlton Athletic?

Stevenage 1-0 Charlton Athletic in the England - 1st Division on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stevenage vs Charlton Athletic?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stevenage win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Stevenage 36%, draw 31%, Charlton Athletic 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stevenage), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Stevenage) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN1 More England - 1st Division
28 Sep 2024
14:30 Crawley Town vs Bolton Wanderers Analysis →
14:30 Reading vs Huddersfield Town Analysis →
17:00 Birmingham vs Peterborough United Analysis →
17:00 Bristol Rovers vs Wycombe Wanderers Analysis →
17:00 Wigan Athletic vs Exeter City Analysis →
17:00 Leyton Orient vs Wrexham Analysis →