Arsenal 4-2 Leicester City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 28 Sep 2024

Arsenal
4-2 HT 2-0
Leicester City
📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Arsenal vs Leicester City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.27
Draw
20%
5.15
Away
14%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.23
Over 2.5
60%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.16
No
49%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.57
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
28%
2.88
6+ Goals
13%
8.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.41
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
28.0
X/1
20%
3.3
X/2
5%
25.5
X/X
7%
8.43
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
24.85
2/2
5%
20.65
2/X
5%
28.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.85 — our 11% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
75%
-8.6pp
19%
Draw
17%
+2.8pp
14%
Away Win
9%
+5.7pp
40%
Under 2.5
41%
-0.7pp
60%
Over 2.5
59%
+0.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
42%
+8.5pp
49%
BTTS No
58%
-8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arsenal v Leicester City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Leicester City EU Bookmakers 11%
+0% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
2.26/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/2.30
+11% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -10%
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
495 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 75%
43.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
20.1 Crosses 12.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9

Arsenal vs Leicester City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Leicester City
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.76 xG 0.53
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
414 Passes 387
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.02.2023 Leicester City Leicester City 0-1 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
13.08.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 4-2 HT 2-0 Leicester City Leicester City İNP
13.03.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 2-0 HT 1-0 Leicester City Leicester City İNP
30.10.2021 Leicester City Leicester City 0-2 HT 0-2 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
28.02.2021 Leicester City Leicester City 1-3 HT 1-2 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
25.10.2020 Arsenal Arsenal 0-1 HT 0-0 Leicester City Leicester City İNP

Arsenal 4-2 Leicester City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal
4-2
AWAY Leicester City
4.60 xG 0.32
75% Ball Possession 25%
35 Total Shots 5
16 Shots on Target 3
17 Corners 0
592 Passes 171
89% Pass Accuracy 74%
78 Box Touches 11
38 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Arsenal vs Leicester City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal got the better of Leicester City 4-2. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Arsenal had 75% of the ball to Leicester City's 25%, shots finished 35-5, expected goals 4.60 to 0.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Arsenal and 0.67 for Leicester City.

What was the final score of Arsenal vs Leicester City?

Arsenal 4-2 Leicester City in the England - Premier League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Leicester City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 66%, draw 19%, Leicester City 14%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNP More England - Premier League
28 Sep 2024
14:30 Newcastle United vs Manchester City Analysis →
17:00 Brentford vs West Ham United Analysis →
17:00 Nottingham Forest vs Fulham Analysis →
17:00 Chelsea vs Brighton & Hove Albion Analysis →
17:00 Everton vs Crystal Palace Analysis →
19:30 Wolverhampton vs Liverpool Analysis →