Newcastle United 1-1 Manchester City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
4.04
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
47%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.23
Over 2.5
53%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.67
2-3 Goals
41%
1.91
4-5 Goals
26%
2.86
6+ Goals
11%
7.99
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
6.94
1/2
8%
20.75
1/X
5%
14.85
X/1
5%
9.9
X/2
8%
4.15
X/X
14%
5.97
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
31%
2.08
2/X
6%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
22%
+6.6pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.2pp
47%
Away Win
55%
-7.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.2pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester City EU Bookmakers 59%
+1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -10%
1.30/1.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/1.25
+30% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +1%
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
294 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 439 · 83%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.5
16.4 Crosses 17.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle United
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Manchester City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.93 xG 1.87
34% Ball Possession 66%
8 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
271 Passes 593
78% Pass Accuracy 89%
20 Box Touches 38
10 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
13.01.2024 Newcastle United Newcastle United 2-3 HT 2-1 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
27.09.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-0 HT 0-0 Manchester City Manchester City İNLK
19.08.2023 Manchester City Manchester City 1-0 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
04.03.2023 Manchester City Manchester City 2-0 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
21.08.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 3-3 HT 2-1 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
08.05.2022 Manchester City Manchester City 5-0 HT 2-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle United
1-1
AWAY Manchester City
1.57 xG 0.91
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
261 Passes 490
79% Pass Accuracy 88%
26 Box Touches 40
16 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Newcastle United vs Manchester City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle United and Manchester City shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Manchester City at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Newcastle United had 38% of the ball to Manchester City's 62%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 1.57 to 0.91.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester City led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Newcastle United and 2.33 for Manchester City.

What was the final score of Newcastle United vs Manchester City?

Newcastle United 1-1 Manchester City in the England - Premier League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle United vs Manchester City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Newcastle United 28%, draw 24%, Manchester City 47%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Manchester City), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Manchester City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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