Wolverhampton 1-2 Liverpool — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.91
Draw
23%
4.81
Away
56%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.63
Over 2.5
58%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
6.26
2-3 Goals
34%
2.1
4-5 Goals
30%
2.54
6+ Goals
13%
5.47
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
11.6
1/2 EV+ ✗
13%
19.6
1/X
6%
19.7
X/1
6%
16.95
X/2
18%
3.71
X/X
12%
8.45
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
25%
1.55
2/X
5%
20.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.6 — our 13% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
13%
+7.7pp
23%
Draw
17%
+6.2pp
56%
Away Win
70%
-14.0pp
42%
Under 2.5
34%
+7.9pp
58%
Over 2.5
66%
-7.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.9pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wolverhampton EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool EU Bookmakers 75%
+3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -1%
1.19/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.03/1.09
+8% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -19%
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
272 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 472 · 84%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 37.4
16.8 Crosses 22.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wolverhampton
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Liverpool
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.12 xG 2.19
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
321 Passes 493
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 38
12 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
19.05.2024 Liverpool Liverpool 2-0 HT 2-0 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton İNP
16.09.2023 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton 1-3 HT 1-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
01.03.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 2-0 HT 0-0 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton İNP
04.02.2023 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton 3-0 HT 2-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
17.01.2023 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton 0-1 HT 0-1 Liverpool Liverpool FAK
07.01.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 2-2 HT 1-1 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton FAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wolverhampton
1-2
AWAY Liverpool
0.63 xG 2.54
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 10
357 Passes 455
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 38
15 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Wolverhampton vs Liverpool
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool edged past Wolverhampton 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Liverpool as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Wolverhampton had 45% of the ball to Liverpool's 55%, shots finished 8-10, expected goals 0.63 to 2.54 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Liverpool's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Wolverhampton and 1.67 for Liverpool.

What was the final score of Wolverhampton vs Liverpool?

Wolverhampton 1-2 Liverpool in the England - Premier League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wolverhampton vs Liverpool?

Before kick-off our model rated an Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Wolverhampton 21%, draw 23%, Liverpool 56%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liverpool), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Liverpool) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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