Buxton 1-1 Kidderminster Harriers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.94
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
41%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
17%
X/X
15%
2/1
11%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
31%
+2.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.6pp
41%
Away Win
44%
-3.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+2.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-2.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.2pp
51%
BTTS No
43%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Buxton EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Kidderminster Harriers EU Bookmakers 48%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -28% / -28%
2.77/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.29
+101% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -54% / +6%
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
300 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
5.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Buxton
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Kidderminster Harriers
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
6 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.04.2023 Kidderminster Harriers Kidderminster Harriers 1-0 HT 1-0 Buxton Buxton İCON
27.09.2022 Buxton Buxton 1-1 HT 0-0 Kidderminster Harriers Kidderminster Harriers İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Buxton
1-1
AWAY Kidderminster Harriers
36% Ball Possession 64%
4 Total Shots 16
1 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Buxton vs Kidderminster Harriers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Buxton and Kidderminster Harriers shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Kidderminster Harriers at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Buxton had 36% of the ball to Kidderminster Harriers's 64%, shots finished 4-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Kidderminster Harriers led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Buxton and 1.00 for Kidderminster Harriers.

What was the final score of Buxton vs Kidderminster Harriers?

Buxton 1-1 Kidderminster Harriers in the England - FA Cup on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Buxton vs Kidderminster Harriers?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kidderminster Harriers win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Buxton 33%, draw 26%, Kidderminster Harriers 41%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kidderminster Harriers) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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