Chertsey Town 3-2 Ashford United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.34
Draw
24%
4.81
Away
29%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under
38%
2.61
Over Pick
62%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.68
No
42%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1
18%
2-3
34%
4-5
32%
6+
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
9%
1/X
4%
X/1
5%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
70%
-22.8pp
24%
Draw
18%
+6.6pp
29%
Away Win
13%
+16.2pp
38%
Under 2.5
35%
+3.0pp
62%
Over 2.5
65%
-3.0pp
58%
BTTS Yes
56%
+2.4pp
42%
BTTS No
44%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chertsey Town EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Ashford United EU Bookmakers 16%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
404 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Chertsey Town vs Ashford United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chertsey Town squeezed past Ashford United 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Chertsey Town as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

What was the final score of Chertsey Town vs Ashford United?

Chertsey Town 3-2 Ashford United in the England - FA Cup on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chertsey Town vs Ashford United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chertsey Town win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Chertsey Town 47%, draw 24%, Ashford United 29%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chertsey Town), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chertsey Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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